September 04, 2001

Growing preserve

By JOHN STROMNES of the Missoulian (Missoula, Montana)

Tribes on board with new program to plant trees to offset carbon

How things work

Growing trees "lock up" carbon dioxide, cleaning the environment and
presumably reducing global warming. The companies get credit for their
contribution to environmental cleanup and (once an acceptable trading
system is
operating) they can trade the credit for revenue or use it to offset their
pollution,
and keep on producing their products and making money.

CAMAS PRAIRIE - The Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes recently sold
$50,000 worth of "carbon-offset" credits for timber they agree to grow on
250
acres of burned-over mountainside owned and managed by the tribes near
Camas Prairie.

They didn't sell the timber. The buyer cannot cut the trees when they reach
merchantable size, or otherwise use the property. The contract gives the
buyer
only the promise by the tribes to plant, grow and manage the timber
responsibly,
and to keep it thinned and healthy, during the 100-year period of the
contract is in
effect, something the tribal government would try to do anyway, if trees
were
growing on the site now.

The money will be used to reforest the area burned by the Henry Peak fire
in
1994, something the tribal government has been unable to afford on its own.

In 100 years, the yellow pine will be mature and valuable as timber, and
the
fire-damaged wildlife habitat will be vastly improved. By then, all rights
to the
trees, including any remaining carbon offsets, will revert to the tribal
government,
which can do with the forest what it will: save it for elk and deer and
human
enjoyment, or cut it down for boards, jobs and tribal revenue.

The original buyer gets nothing but a contract crediting him with locking
up an
estimated 47,972 tons of "greenhouse gases" during the first 80 years of
tree
growth. The credits may someday be valuable, if a market for trading carbon
emission reduction credits develops. So some entities are buying such
credits in
anticipation of stricter regulations in the future, and also to garner good
public
relations for their environmental awareness. General Motors, for example,
recently paid $10 million to help reforest a tract of former rain forest in
Brazil,
partly in hope of getting carbon-offset credits that will help the company
reach
pollution-control goals.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, signed by 178 nations last month, nations also
would
have to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to certain target levels. If
their own
pollution levels remain high, they also could trade for credits from
countries that
top their targets, or earn credits by such reforestation projects, either
abroad or
at home.

Thus, the anticipated "lockup" of greenhouse gases in the future would
become a
commodity that could be bought and sold on a commodity exchange just like
wheat, lumber or soybean futures contracts.

Too good to be true? Nope. This example of carbon-offset trading, as it is
called,
really happened this spring in a transaction so unusual (and speculative)
that it
probably is unique so far in North America. It is certainly the first to
involve any
North American Indian tribes.

"We're trying to do the same thing that worked for sulfur emissions - a
market-based approach to an environmental problem," said Tom Corse,
director
of forestry for the CSKT tribal government.

Scientists believe gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which are
products
of combustion in industrial process, are responsible for global warming.
Global
warming is a concern of the U.S. government, although President Bush did
not
sign the Kyoto Protocol.

The idea is to encourage the companies and nations which produce much of
the
greenhouse gases through combustion of coal and petroleum to preserve and
plant forests and clean up the environment at the same time.

The growing trees "lock up" carbon dioxide, cleaning the environment and
presumably reducing global warming. The companies get credit for their
contribution to environmental cleanup and (once an acceptable trading
system is
operating) they can trade the credit for revenue or use it to offset their
pollution,
and keep on producing their products and making money.

Long-term forest growth is sustained and encouraged. The environment is
cleansed. The consumer, or in some cases the taxpayers in rich, polluting
nations
like the United States, eventually foots the bill.

The guru of carbon-offset trading is Richard L. Sandor, who in the late
1980s
was chairman of a committee of the Chicago Board of Trade that developed
the
first spot and futures markets for sulfur dioxide emission allowances. His
committee supervised the annual allowance auctions conducted on behalf of
the
U.S. government for these "commodities." This free-market approach to
pollution
cleanup is credited with much of the success in reducing acid rain in the
eastern
United States during the last decade, Corse said.

Sandor currently is chairman and chief executive officer of Environmental
Financial Products, which specializes in developing and trading in new
environmental, financial and commodity markets. He is helping to designs
hybrid
financial instruments that "enhance the interrelationships between the
capital,
commodity and environmental markets," according to Sandor's Internet Web
site.
His credentials include a doctorate in economics from the University of
Michigan
(1967), and he has worked for high-powered financial firms like Kidder
Peabody, Banque Indosuez and Drexel Burham Lambert. He has been on the
faculty of the University of California at Berkeley School of Business
Administration, and Columbia University, where he recently taught a course
on
environmental finance.

Sandor also heads a London environmental group, Sustainable Forestry
Management - the entity that paid CSKT $50,000 for the gas-emission
credits.

Sandor was traveling in South America last week, and could not be reached
for
comment for this story. But in a prepared statement released earlier by
Sandor
and tribal government, he said: "Society cannot get on the path to
environmental
sustainability if we don't improve our management of forests and soils
worldwide.
This path-breaking international transaction is a statement of how
reforestation
can advance the global carbon market, and help address climate change while
improving the socioeconomic conditions of local communities."

Because Sandor was unavailable to discuss the funding of Sustainable
Forestry
Management, the ultimate source of the $50,000 paid to the tribes by SFM
for
global warming cleanup credits was not immediately available. It may be
some of
the $145 million the World Bank reserved last year to encourage such
global-emission projects.

Many private landowners across Montana also may be interested in getting
private industry, the World Bank or nonprofit environmental groups to pay
them
to grow trees on their own properties.

In fact, considerable interest is developing as word of the transaction has
spread
across the state. (Corse began working on the project six years ago.)

According to Larry Van Rinsum of Somers, executive director of Montana
Watershed Inc. and its spinoff, the Montana Carbon Offset Coalition, he
already
has received several calls. Van Rinsum was instrumental in setting up
technical
specifications for the contract, Corse said.

"I've got lots of private landowners around the state who are interested,
and I'm
also developing a portfolio nationally (of potential sellers). But it's a
very
speculative effort," Van Rinsum said. While it could be a big economic boon
to
Montana landowners in the future, "Right now, we're trying to keep
expectations
realistic." The tribal-SFM deal is the only such contract in Montana so
far, he
said.

A big step forward will be made when the U.S. government adopts a policy on
use of such credits, he said.

Van Rinsum's group has close ties to the Lake County and Lincoln County
Rural
Conservation districts, and the tribe also has worked closely with the
state
conservation district office to get this initial project off the ground,
Corse and Van
Rinsum said.

There are a host of problems and pitfalls, many of which Van Rinsum is
trying to
address.

For example: What if the timber burns down? You'll need fire insurance, or
at
least some agreed-upon way to manage this very real risk, Van Rinsum said.

What if the tribes harvest thriving forest lands elsewhere on the
reservation,
offsetting the carbon offset, or the timber doesn't grow to expectations?
You have
to have a neutral third party inspecting the site, and agreements on
enforcement
and adjudication, he said.

And you have to have political stability, so that the contract is still
valid through
the 100 years, despite changes of administrations, public opinion and
political
leadership.

That's a big reason why there is interest in such contracts in North
America.
Although trees grow much faster in the tropics, thus tying up much more
carbon
at less cost, political stability and adherence to the rule of law in the
United States
is second to none.

In the absence of a strong regulatory framework - there is no accepted
regulatory
framework internationally as yet, although the Kyoto Protocol has suggested
one
- there will be temptations to indulge in marginal practices, or "creative
carbon
accounting," resulting in no net environmental gain. These and a host of
other
technical problems, such as precisely how to measure the amount of carbon
"trapped" by the trees vs. the amount let out through natural process, must
be
addressed. Van Rinsum is working on that as well.

"We knew that selling credits wouldn't be possible unless we could get an
infrastructure that would be acceptable to financial markets. We're trying
to set
the standards that everyone will agree on," said tribal forester Corse.

Some environmental groups oppose the policy of carbon offsets, because it
essentially gives the nations that are the largest contributors to global
warming,
like the United States, a way to continue polluting without cleanup at the
source.

But it is the carrot-and-stick metaphor all over again, according to Corse.
The
United States highly values a free-market economy, and regulatory
punishment by
government agencies is none too popular politically.

So such a free-market approach is a carrot much more likely to succeed than
more stringent government controls that are unpopular and difficult to
enforce,
Corse said.

Some studies estimate that 15 percent of the world's greenhouse gas
emissions
could be offset by sustainable forestry practices all over the world. But
such
forestry practices raise larger issues, ones that only recently have just
been
brought up for discussion in American political circles.

President Bush's rejection of the Kyoto Accords has caused some serious
discussion of the problem to begin on Main Street America, plus corporate
boardrooms and in Washington, D.C.

National legislative action centers mainly on efforts by Sen. John McCain,
R-Ariz., and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., to set a nationwide cap on
carbon emissions, and by letting companies buy and sell emissions credits,
allowing the market to find the most cost-effective way to meet the cap.

Worldwide, the concept has had much greater acceptance, especially in
Europe,
which is much "greener" (environmentally conscious) than the United States,
Corse and Van Rinsum said.

But Van Rinsum says all this abstruse think-tank-level policymaking
eventually
will filter down to real economic benefits for Montana landowners, and will
promote sustainable forestry as well as bringing real environmental
benefits.

"We're not trying to change the world. We're using this as a tool to help
out local
economic development, and to do our bit for global warming. We are aiming
this
at Montana private landowners because they can benefit the most," Van
Rinsum
said.

 --------

Van Rinsum, Montana Watershed Inc. and the Montana Carbon Offset
Coalition can be reached at mwi@digisys.net or by calling (406) 857-2285.
Tom Corse works out of the tribal offices in Ronan, and can be reached at
the tribal government number in Pablo, (406) 675-2700.

rom weather.com
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstories/workoutside/agriculture/010927s
ummertemps.html

Summer 2001 warmer than average
Thu., September 27, 2001 2:00 p.m. ET

Julie Galle, weather.com

The summer of 2001 ends as the fifth warmest ever recorded. The news comes
from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which keeps track of weather
conditions across the country.

Scientists at the NCDC calculated conditions for the meteorological summer,
which begins in June and ends in August.

They found the country's average temperature for the summer to be 73.6
degrees Fahrenheit. That's 1.5 degrees above normal, but not out of line
with recent years. The NCDC reports that average summer temperatures have
registered above average in 11 of the past 15 years.

Heat waves helped put this summer in the record books. The most notable
developed in late July and lingered through early August. It began in the
Southern Plains and stretched into the Upper Midwest and eventually the
Northeast. High temperatures rose into the 90s and 100s for several days.

Combined with high humidity, the heat led to dangerous heat stress levels
and numerous heat-related deaths, including that of Minnesota Vikings right
tackle Korey Stringer.

While the country's summer temperature measured above the normal, things
were cooler than usual across much of the Southeast.

"Troughs kept bringing down Canadian highs that kept things cooler in the
Southeast," explained Mark Ressler, senior meteorologist at The Weather
Channel.

"Meantime, the Central U.S. and West were locked under an upper-level ridge.
There were a few times when fronts were able to bring hot air into the
Midwest and Northeast," added Ressler.

Summer's rainfall measured just over the typical level of 8.2 inches.
National precipitation was 8.4 inches from June to August, according to the
NCDC.

Tropical Storms Allison and Barry were major players in the summer's
rainfall. Allison brought over 30 inches of rain to Houston, and then soaked
states along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts for days following. Barry followed
a few weeks later with several inches of rain for Alabama and Florida.

On the other side of the country, precipitation in the West did little to
alleviate long-term drought conditions, which worsened in many cities. A
lack of rain left thirsty plants as easy fuel for wildfires that got a boost
from another weather factor -- wind. Blazes burned more than one million
acres in the West.

Arid Arizona is likely to cook as climate changes

Thursday, September 27, 2001
By Environmental News Network

Eighteen thousand square feet of solar collectors providing hot water to
1,100 inmates and staff at the Federal Correctional Institution in Phoenix,
Ariz.
 

Arizona residents could experience increased health risks as a result of
climate change, according to the national organization Physicians for Social
Responsibility. The group has just issued a climate change health forecast
for Arizona to help the state's residents know what to expect as the world
warms.
Arizonans are used to living with extremes in climate, including sharp
differences in rainfall across the state and temperature variations of
sometimes 50 degrees or more within a single day. But the changes projected
during the next 100 years could provide the greatest challenge yet, the
Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) say.

Their report projects that the heat index will increase by more than 25
degrees Fahrenheit. That means, for example, a July day in Phoenix that
currently reaches a heat index of 110 degrees Fahrenheit could reach a heat
index of more than 135 degrees.

The latest in PSR's "Death by Degrees" state-by-state series of reports,
Arizona's report is intended to alert Arizona residents to the damaging
health effects of climate change. The reports are also intended to encourage
Americans to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels which emit heat-trapping
greenhouse gases when they are burned.

"Climate change poses a serious threat to public health," said Robert Musil,
Ph.D., executive director and CEO of PSR, a nonprofit organization
representing 20,000 physicians, nurses, and health professionals nationwide.
"We hope that people will read this report, understand what is at stake, and
make their concerns known to their elected leaders."

According to physicians who have studied global warming and its potential
effects, higher temperatures will have an adverse effect on human health,
particularly for the elderly. Many older people retire in Arizona because of
its warm climate, and as a result Arizona is one of two states with the
highest annual age-adjusted rate for heat-related deaths.

By the year 2025, Arizona's population is expected to increase between 25 and
40 percent, and more than one-fifth of the population will be older than 65.

Some experts project a rise in the heat index of 8 to 15 degrees Farenheit
during the next century. Heavy rainfall and flooding are also projected to
increase as a result of climate change. Flash floods cause the largest number
of weather-related deaths in the United States each year.

Flooding is dangerous in arid climates like Arizona, where a wash that is dry
for most days of the year can transform into a rapidly flowing body of water
in a matter of seconds.

Some scientists also believe there is a link between heavy rainfall and an
increase in the number of rodents carrying the deadly hantavirus. As storm
activity increases with climate change, the incidence of contaminating runoff
may also increase, the physicians say.

There is likely to be decreased air quality in the state due to increased
smog levels, leading to more frequent and severe attacks of asthma and other
respiratory problems. Ozone-related health problems already warrant high
concern in the state. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, had 74 Orange
Alert days from 1997 to 1999. For the 40,000 children and 70,000 adults with
asthma who live in Maricopa Country, smog is of special concern.

"Death by Degrees" lays out specific opportunities for personal and political
actions needed to combat global warming. The physicians advise people to
contact local, state, and federal officials to ask that they consider a plan
to deal with global warming. Urge governments to provide incentives for
individuals and businesses to make more efficient energy choices and clean up
or shut down old, polluting power plants, the physicians say.

The Arizona report is the 11th in a planned series of 12 state-specific
reports in which PSR describes the effects that rising world temperatures may
have on local communities.

Copyright 2001, Environmental News Network
All Rights Reserved
Atmosphere, Not Oceans, Carries Most Heat to Poles

From University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Wednesday, September 26, 2001

BOULDER, CO — According to a new data analysis, the atmosphere
redistributes annually as much heat from the tropics to the poles as
would be produced by five million of the world's biggest power
stations,
generating 1,000 megawatts each. This is far more heat than previously
estimated and much more than the oceans carry poleward. Until now
scientists have been unable to reconcile observations of the
atmosphere and ocean with results from global climate models. The new
study establishes the role of each in total heat transport poleward.
"This new analysis makes the observations more consistent with the
most stable global climate models and gives us confidence that the
models are on target," says Kevin Trenberth of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research. Trenberth and NCAR colleague Julie Caron
performed the analysis, which was published in a recent issue of the
Journal of Climate, a publication of the American Meteorological
Society. It was selected this month by the journal Science as an
Editor's Choice of important new findings.

The atmosphere and oceans help to even out the planet's temperatures
by moving vast amounts of solar heat from the equator toward both
poles, primarily during winter in each hemisphere. Without this
leveling effect, all the high latitudes would be frozen solid while
the tropics would be much warmer and wetter.

Based on a reanalysis of data gathered between February 1985 and
April 1989, the study shows that the atmosphere handles 78% of the
total heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere and 92% in the
Southern Hemisphere at 35 degrees latitude--where the total poleward
transport in each hemisphere peaks. The ocean carries more heat than
the atmosphere only in the tropics between 0 and 17 degrees north,
according to the study.

In the past, computer models attempting to mimic the Earth's climate
have required artificial fixes to match real-world observations. Only
recently have NCAR and the United Kingdom's Hadley Center developed
climate models stable enough to simulate centuries of climate without
these fixes. Their results now nearly match the observations. To
complete the picture, recent results from ocean measurements fit well
with those deduced by Trenberth and Caron from the atmospheric
component and both now add up to the alreadh known total heat
transport.

In the late 1970s the ocean and atmosphere were thought to be
conveying about the same amount of heat globally. Scientists
estimated that the atmosphere was hauling 57% of the heat load, with
oceans bearing a hefty 43% at the 35-degree latitude. As analyses
have improved, estimates have steadily increased the magnitude of
poleward heat transport occurring in the atmospheres of both
hemispheres.

The atmosphere's role may have been slighted in the past because of a
lack of data over the oceans, where substantial atmospheric heat
transport occurs. Satellites have helped fill that gap. Trenberth and
Caron focused on the 1985-1989 period because it offers reliable top-
of-the-atmosphere radiation data from satellite measurements taken
during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment.

The new study was based on two data reanalyses, one by the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction and NCAR, the other by the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The study was
funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and
NASA. NCAR is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research with primary sponsorship by the National Science Foundation.

-The End-

Note to Editors: PDF or faxed copies of the paper are available to
journalists from Anatta, NCAR press office (303-497-8604), or from
Stephanie Kenitzer, AMS press office (425-432-2192).

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