Global 2000 Revisited

Global 2000 Revisited
What Shall We Do?
by Gerald O. Barney with Jane Blewett and Kristen R. Barney

Overview
If present beliefs and policies continue, the world in the 21st century will be more crowded, more polluted, less stable economically and ecologically, and more vulnerable to violent disruption than the world we live in now. Serious stresses involving inter-religious relations, the economy, population, resources, environment and security loom ahead. Overall, Earth's people will be poorer in many ways than they are today.

For more than a billion of Earth's desperately poor humans, the outlook for food and other necessities of life will be no better. For many it will be worse. Life for billions will be more precarious in the 21st century than it is now - unless the faith traditions of the world lead the nations and peoples of Earth to act decisively to alter current beliefs and policies.

This, in essence, is the picture which emerges in Global 2000 Revisited: What Shall We Do? This picture is based on projections of probable changes in the world economy, population, resources and environment. Although these projections are drawn from the most reliable sources available, they do not predict what will occur. Rather, they depict conditions that are likely to develop if there are no changes in beliefs, public policy and practices. A keener awareness of the prospects for the 21st century, however, may induce significant changes in beliefs, policies and practices.

Principal Findings
Rapid growth in the world's population cannot continue through the 21st century and will come to an end either by human decision and action or by an uncontrollable increase in deaths.

Over the past 70 years - roughly one lifetime in many countries - the human population grew from 1.8 billion to 5.4 billion. For every person alive 70 years ago, there are now three. Such rapid growth cannot continue for even another generation. Fertility must decline, or mortality will increase.

But for now the growth continues. Currently the world's population is growing faster than ever before. Each year, 90 million people are added to our numbers, the demographic equivalent of another Mexico. Just a lifetime ago, we were adding only 15 million people per year.

If drastic declines in human fertility (or very large increases in mortality) occur over the next five years, it would be possible to stabilize the human population at about twelve billion within a century. Virtually all of the additional growth - more than six billion - would occur in the poorest, least industrialized countries of the world, often called the "South." The population in the South would grow to over ten billion. The population in the industrialized countries of the "North" would remain at about its current size, a little over one billion.

For such a rapid drop in human fertility to occur, it will be necessary to change the religious, social, economic and legal factors that shape couples' decisions on the number of children they have. Safe and effective contraceptive services must be available, but most important, religious teachings and social, economic and legal circumstances must shift to encourage small families. Child labor, for example, must cease to provide an economic benefit to parents.

It will be difficult to provide 11 to 12 billion people with even such basic necessities as food. Of the 14 billion hectares of land on Earth, only 3.3 billion hectares are potentially arable. At current yields, 0.26 hectares per person are needed to feed the human population; thus at current yields, 3.1 billion hectares would be needed to feed 11 to 12 billion. Only 1.5 billion hectares are currently in production. Since in most cases the best lands are already in use for agriculture, and the remaining lands are already used for grazing or some other use, a doubling of the land in agricultural production would be expensive and disruptive.

Doubling the world's agricultural lands would also cause enormous environmental damage. The potentially arable land that is not now in use - especially land in the tropics - is habitat for a large number of species. Doubling the amount of land in agricultural production would lead to massive extinctions. Even with modest growth in the amount of land in production, a third of all the species that were alive a lifetime ago will become extinct - gone forever - within another decade or two. By 2015, hundreds of species are projected to disappear daily.

If we are to meet the food needs of up to 12 billion people by the end of the 21st century, it is essential that agricultural yields continue to be increased - and in ways that are sustainable. Although conventional technologies can probably double yields, there are increasing questions about the sustainability of conventional agricultural technologies. Furthermore, the promised benefits of yield increases through genetic engineering may be delayed and more modest than expected.

The so-called Green Revolution began about 1950. For the first time, yield-increasing technologies (plant-breeding genetics, fertilizers, pesticides and pumped irrigation) were applied extensively and systematically during the last half of this century, increasing yields dramatically and preventing serious food shortages.

But the Green Revolution also changed agriculture radically, making it dependent both on environmentally destructive practices (especially the use of pesticides, fertilizers and irrigation) and on fossil fuels. Energy used for corn production in the United States, for Example, has increased by a factor of four since 1945. The future of human food supplies is now closely linked to the future of energy supplies.

Global energy supplies and prices are likely to become more unstable and erratic in the decades ahead. Even at present rates of consumption, most of the world's petroleum would be burned within the lifetime of a child born today. If consumption were to increase enough to fuel economic growth in the South, the petroleum supplies of the world would disappear even more quickly. The most pressing constraint on the use of petroleum, however, may not be supply of the resources, but disposal space for its principle combustion product - carbon dioxide.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere is increasing around the world, largely because of the combustion of fossil fuels in the industrialized North. Within the lifetime of today's children, global concentrations of carbon dioxide are likely to reach twice pre-industrial concentrations. Such high concentrations are expected to cause planet-wide changes in temperature and weather patterns. Such changes would seriously disrupt agriculture throughout the world as early as the first half of the 21st century, and during the second half would lead to a sea level rise of 20 to 30 centimeters - enough to force the resettlement of hundreds of millions of people and the abandonment of some island nations.

The Choice Ahead
The critical issues described above are just a few of the challenges that lie ahead. Others that have not even been touched on include the implications of AIDS and tuberculosis; nuclear, chemical and biological weapons; the global debt; migration; corruption; drug trade; and technological change, to name a few.

Given the magnitude of the issues we face, we must expect that within the lifetime of a child born today, the world will change radically in one of two directions. If we continue with present beliefs, institutions and policies, the world will become highly polarized, with a billion people in the wealthy industrialized countries of the North attempting to enjoy life and leisure a few decades longer while 10 billion people in the South spiral downward into increasingly desperate poverty exacerbated by global environmental deterioration. Ultimately the North spirals downward too, and the whole planet drifts off into a new dark age or worse.

But there is another option open to us, one in which everyone comes to recognize that a healthy Earth is an essential prerequisite for a healthy human population. Under this option, the world could become less polluted, less crowded, more stable ecologically, economically and politically if we humans would be willing to work together to

We do not have generations or even decades to choose between these two directions because of the momentum inherent population growth, capital investments, technological choice and environmental changes. In fact, the choice of direction for Earth is being made today.

Our concept of progress - our model of development - measures every nation by the norm of a so-called "developed" country. Under this concept of progress, each "rational" nation is to progress to the economic and military might of the "developed" countries of the industrialized North. Similarly, the goal of each "rational " person is to progress to the point of being able to live like the wealthiest. This concept of progress has failed. Twelve billion people cannot live like the wealthiest do now. All nations of the world cannot become as wasteful and environmentally destructive as the industrialized North is now. For them to do so would increase the total economic activity by a factor of five to ten, and Earth could not withstand such an assault.

What is our alternative? What other concept of progress - what other model of development - can we pursue? Currently there is no agreed upon answer to these questions. But if we people of earth are to avoid a massive disaster within the lifetime of our children, our most critical and urgent task is to bring forth a transformed vision of progress, one of sustainable and replicable development.

We are discovering (or rediscovering) that our human economy is part of, and depends on, the "economy" of the whole ecosphere. So any model for a sustainable world must address both our habits of consumption and reproduction and our willingness to live peacefully with one another, with other creatures, and with Earth itself. Our definitions of progress and success must take into account the future well-being of the entire ecosphere, not just the human part of it. Such a changed understanding of progress and success will require a new understanding of humankind as a species, a new approach to the ethics of interspecies relations, and a new vision for the future of Earth.

Questions for Our Spiritual Leaders
The task before us is fundamentally spiritual in nature: to discover who we humans are, how we are to relate to each other and to the whole community of life, and what we are to do, individually and collectively, here on Earth. So we turn with our questions to you, our spiritual leaders.

Changing Course
In a sense, Earth is no longer orbiting peacefully about the Sun. Earth is careening toward the spiritual equivalent of a massive stone wall.

The brutality of humans to each other - the "ethnic cleansing," the ignoring of hunger and poverty, the acts of terrorism - and the environmental destruction and loss of natural beauty are already draining us of the spiritual and emotional energy we need to change course, and the situation is growing worse daily. We are becoming numb, unable to feel and react as we must if we are to put Earth back into a peaceful orbit.

Changing course will require an immense amount of energy. Not the energy that comes from coal, gas, oil or even nuclear fuel, but rather spiritual and emotional energy, except to change the thinking and lives of five billion people.

Can so much energy be generated? Can so many people become empowered to think and live differently? Maybe.

An Invitation to Help
It is the conviction of the Trustees and staff of the Millennium Institute that a unique opportunity to set Earth on a new course is offered by the 1999-2001 period, and we are working steadily to make the most of this opportunity. We invite spiritual leaders, and others too, to join us in this effort.

The opportunity relates to the fact that deep in the human psyche is a compulsion to celebrate anniversaries, birthdays and other recurring dates. The entry into the 21st century and the third millennium will be a psychological experience vastly more profound than any anniversary we humans have yet experienced. Already hotel ballrooms are being booked along the Greenwich meridian by people who want to be the first to enter the 21st century. Concord supersonic jets are being charted to fly people across time zones so that they can attend parties and celebrate the entry into the new millennium twice These are just the beginning signs of the emotional energies that will be released during the 1999-2001 period.

This occasion, the entry into the new millennium, has special significance for Christians as the approximate bi-millennium (2000th anniversary) of Christianity, and there is danger that it could come to be seen as an exclusively Christian event. The Gregorian calendar, however, never was an exclusively Christian calendar. Beginning the year at 1 January was a pagan Roman custom resisted by the Church, and most scholars now agree that the Nativity of Christ did not occur in 0 (or 1) AD but rather before Herod's death in 4 "BC." Furthermore the Gregorian calendar has become the calendar of commerce and science throughout the world. The entry into the new millennium must be understood to be an anniversary of Earth, to be enjoyed and celebrated by peoples of all faiths.

Earth's entry into the next millennium is a planetary "transitional" event, and as a "mega anniversary" it has potential for reinforcing the identity of human beings, first and foremost, as citizens of Earth, as "Earthlings. This potential must be developed and utilized.

In most cultures, the transition from an old state to a new one (birthdays, graduations, marriages, funerals) is marked by celebrations having three elements. The first element is a period of preparation and grieving. During this period, we prepare to give up our past condition or to "die" to our old state. For our entry into the new millennium, we must prepare to give up our old, 20th century ways of thinking and living.

The second element is a moment of transition, the actual giving up of the old state and the entry into the new. It requires a symbolic act of change, such as the embrace of kiss at a wedding, the movement of the tassels at a graduation, the closing of the casket or the lighting of the pyre at a funeral. For our entry into the 21st century, we need a new symbol, perhaps crossing a stream or river to a new place and a new way of being.

The third element is the celebration of the new and its possibilities. Music, dance, singing and other forms of celebration are appropriate and needed. Gifts are an essential part o the celebration. Gifts are our way of expressing our good wishes and support for the new, and also a means of helping to assure that something good and enduring comes of the new. For our entry into the new millennium, we must celebrate the opportunities and possibilities of the new era not only with music and joy, but also with generous gifts for the poor, for our enemies, and for Earth on this most extraordinary occasion.

Earth's entry into the next millennium cannot be just another major event. It cannot be even just the event of a lifetime. Or of a hundred years. Or even of a thousand years. That would not be enough. This must be the event of the whole Earth-time, the whole history of Earth. This must be the moment when humans interchange bad and good, unreal and real and set themselves and Earth on a new course.

Summary
Over the next five years all five billion of us must prepare to die to 20th century ways of thinking and being. We must also prepare to see the possibilities and opportunities in our new condition in our new millennium.

To make these preparations, all five billion of us must devote the next five years to learning from each other about Earth and how to live sustainably and peacefully on Earth. Every person must learn to think in a way that leaves room in one's mind for the thoughts of others. Every person must come to understand much better how Earth's natural systems function and how human institutions, governments, political system,s social systems, international organizations, corporations and spiritual institutions operate and influence the future of Earth. Every person must learn again the immense power and value of life. (Does all the money or wisdom in the whole world have the power to restore a single life?) Every person must learn to think like Earth, to act like Earth, to be Earth.

As part of this learning process, we must all think through how our part of earth can contribute to the new. Each person, each family, each corporate institution, each community, each country, each faith needs a plan to contribute to the new. What laws must be changed, what traditions, what beliefs, what institutions?

We also need ideas of appropriate gifts for Earth on this anniversary. What gift can a person give? What can a family, a corporate institution, a community, a country, a faith give to Earth on this momentous anniversary?

For this event to do what it must ,the spiritual leaders of Earth must help lead the way and help plan the events. We humans, all five billion of us, depend on our spiritual leaders to make this all happen. Only the spiritual leaders of Earth - the recognized and the not-yet recognized - command the emotional energies needed to move heads of state, leaders of corporations and other institutions, and ordinary citizens to the acts of generosity and changed thinking and living that must occur.

We need you to lead us in teaching each other about Earth and how to live sustainably on Earth. We need you to help us all design a once-in-an-Earth-time celebration of Earth's entry into a new era. We need you to bring every person, every community and every country to the celebration with their gifts. And most important, we need you to bring the celebration a gift from your own faith tradition, a gift that will help change the course of Earth. What gift could your faith give Earth?

To do what must be done, Earth's spiritual leaders of all faiths and all traditions must work together in ways previously unimagined and unimaginable. We must count on you to develop a community of Earth's faith traditions that is an example of the kind of open communication, mutual respect, acceptance, cooperation and good will that should characterize the emerging global community of nations and peoples. Each tradition has at it score a vision of Divine harmony that it urges its followers to embody in the social sphere. These visions have evolved in distinct historic and geographic contexts. The religions have not successfully been able to transcend their own historical origins so as to express their visions of unity in a fashion appropriate to the needs to the pluralistic global society that is taking form at the beginning of the new millennium. The greatest single scandal in which Earth's faith traditions are now involved is their failure to practice their highest ethical ideals in their relations with one another.

As soon as we humans learn to think like Earth, we together will see a new future for Earth. Then we can die in peace, all five billion of us, to our old ways of thinking. We can cross the waters together. And we can celebrate Earth's safe arrival in a new era in a way that will be remembered forever.

Optimism, Hope and Confidence
Many people - especially young people - look at our situation and prospects and ask, can we be optimistic? We have acted too slowly to help tens of millions of people, and if hundreds of millions, even billions are to be spared the same fate, massive changes are needed over just the next few years. Can we be hopeful?

There is a difference between being optimistic and being hopeful. An optimistic person has a habitual disposition to expect the best possible outcome as the most likely. A hopeful person has a reasoned commitment to and faith in a good outcome, even tough it may be unlikely in the light of past experience.

There is reason for us all to be hopeful but not optimistic. We can be hopeful because Earth is such a fertile, supporting place. We can be hopeful because Earth is showing remarkable resilience in the face of tremendous abuse. We can be hopeful because we now have a much greater understanding of Earth and its limits. We can be hopeful because we humans are recognizing that, as a species, we cannot indefinitely increase our numbers and our demands on Earth. We can be hopeful because we humans are beginning to recover from our erroneous notion that we are separate, above and independent of all other life.

But perhaps something more than hope is justified. At least one person, Father Thomas Berry, thinks so:

Let us all listen to and allow ourselves to be guided by the creative energy that shaped and lighted the universe from the beginning. Let us all awaken to a new understanding of ourselves and the continuing revelation that takes place in and through Earth. Let us take back our lives from cynicism, optimism, addictions, and despair. Let us act with conviction and confidence.

Gerald O. Barney is Founder and Executive Direction of the Millennium Institute. Previously, he directed the US Government's Global 2000 Report to the President and headed the National Program for the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. He has traveled and lectured widely and written numerous books on a sustainable future for Earth. He conducted postdoctoral research in global modeling at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He holds a doctoral degree in fusion energy physics from the University of Wisconsin. He lives in Arlington, Virginia.

Jane Blewett is Founder and Director of the EarthCommunity Center, which helps create and deepen awareness of the sacred relationship between humankind and Earth. She studied the religious and scientific dimensions of the universe story at the Holy Cross Centre for Ecology and Spirituality in Ontario, Canada. She spent 13 years on the research staff of the Center of Concern, in Washington, DC and served as Chief Liaison for the Center of Concern to the United Nations. She has written, lectured and traveled widely, and lives in Laurel, Maryland.

Kristen R. Barney is a Research Associate at the Millennium Institute. She was a New Generation Leader at the Global Assembly on Women and the Environment and has spearheaded the Exploratory Project of the New Generation Leaders. She has published several articles, taught, and lectured, and is on the Editorial Board of the Tribuna da Vida of the Brazilian Movement in Defense of Life. She holds a master's degree in Hispanic language and literature from the University of Wisconsin.